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Can police data predict harm? Evaluating risk in missing person cases using a Harm Vulnerability Framework

Analysis of 16,454 missing-person incidents from two UK forces found high-risk grading, suicide concern and previous harm associated with harmful outcomes, but models had modest explanatory power.

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  • Author(s): S.P. Giles; F. O’Brien; S. Waring

  • Source: Policing and Society

  • Citation:

  • Publisher(s): Taylor & Francis

  • Publication date: 2 June 2026

  • Country: United Kingdom

  • SEO description:

Why it matters: It supports deeper enquiry into prior harm and suicide concern, while reinforcing that risk grades are not a SAR prediction score.

Operational transferability: Directly relevant to UK police-led searches; SAR use should remain focused on questioning, urgency and reassessment.

Important limitations: Historic data from two forces; low harm base rates, local recording variation and overlapping risk variables constrain prediction.

Training influence: Use a scenario where known prior harm changes the urgency and information plan; assess documented rationale rather than numerical scoring.

SAR training sections: Initial Incident Picture; information gathering and subject assessment; search urgency and survivability; reassessment and replanning.

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