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Modelling lost-person behaviour with spatial and temporal decision points

An agent-based model adds terrain-sensitive spatial and timed decision points, including contouring. Fitted to 65 US hiker incidents and checked against six GPS tracks, it outperformed a simple distance-ring model in the authors’ comparisons.

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Published on IPP by Kris Manning

  • Authors: Amanda Hashimoto, Bryson Howell, Robert Koester and Nicole Abaid

  • Published: 24 July 2026

Operational significance: The model represents lost people changing strategies in response to terrain and time, rather than travelling uniformly from the IPP. It supports treating linear features, contouring and behavioural changes as scenario components rather than assuming a single continuing movement strategy. Scientific Reports

Transferability: Applicable with environmental and jurisdictional adaptation, principally to wilderness hiker searches.

Limitations: Retrospective modelling used 65 US hiker incidents and only six complete GPS tracks. Final find locations provide limited evidence about the route actually taken. This is a simulation tool, not a validated operational POA generator, and should not replace established planning judgement.

Training sections: Behavioural and spatial profiling; scenario development; POA; search-area prioritisation; reassessment and replanning.

Training decision: Monitor — discuss dynamic behaviour changes, but do not introduce the model as an operational scoring tool.

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