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Self-Generated Expectations of Hazard Prevalence Affect Virtual Search and Rescue

In a simulated firefighter SAR task (n=48), prior search experience shaped decisions even after participants received accurate new prevalence information. When target prevalence fell, participants made more false-positive identifications.

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  • Author(s): Yan Shan Tai; Jacques A. Grange; Robert C. Honey

  • Source: Human Factors

  • Publisher(s): SAGE Publications, for the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society

  • DOI: 10.1177/00187208251410492

  • Publication date: 6 January 2026

Why it matters: Search technicians can become anchored by what earlier sectors, previous tasks or a briefing lead them to expect. A fresh task brief should explicitly reset what is known, unknown and changed—especially following a negative result or new intelligence.

Limitations and transferability: Controlled semi-immersive hazard search using students, not field teams searching for people or clues. Transferable as human-factors insight for visual search and clue awareness, not as evidence for a specific ground-search tactic.

Training influence: Use practical exercises with deliberate changes in clue/subject prevalence between serial sectors. Debrief how expectation affected attention, false alarms, search termination and reporting of uncertainty.

SAR training sections: Visual search; clue awareness; briefing and confirmation of understanding; team-leader practice; reassessment and replanning.

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